Best Picture
The King's Speech
My main criticism for The Social Network is its anticlimactic ending. It lacks that "good story" element that is The King's Speech's strength. Both brilliant films, but different: The King's Speech is a classic, but The Social Network is a modern classic.
Best Director
David Fincher - The Social Network
Fincher clearly deserves the win over Hooper, but it would be strange for Social Network to win Best Director but not Best Picture. I support Fincher, with Aronofsky for Black Swan as runner-up.
Best Actor
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
Colin Firth makes The King's Speech work. He deserves it. Nuff said.
Best Actress
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
This is one of those "how do you possibly compare?" races. Like Colin Firth's case, though, Natalie Portman is Black Swan.
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale - The Fighter
Geoffrey Rush deserves to be recognized and he was, for the BAFTA. Both amazing actors, both amazing performances, but it's Bale's turn this time.
Best Supporting Actress
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
Steinfeld's category fraud here is so awkward with her character as the clear lead of the film, but I don't want that to stop her from being recognized for her compelling performance. I don't care if Melissa Leo was robbed of Best Actress in the past - this is now.
Best Original Screenply
David Seidler - The King's Speech
Seidler's touching making-of story for The King's Speech is too picture-perfect to pass up, but there are better screenplays in the category - in fact I would place The King's Speech third behind Inception and The Kids Are All Right, in which case Nolan's complicatedly elegant idea barely triumphs over Cholodenko and Blumberg's witty and charming dialogue.
Best Animation
Toy Story 3
Much of Toy Story 3's success comes from its ability to build on the previous two Toy Stories, which were both good films. How to Train Your Dragon is touching, has a great story with lovable characters, and an amazing soundtrack, but even so, it doesn't measure up to Toy Story 3, which does deserve its Best Picture nomination as well.
Best Adapted Screenply
Aaron Sorkin - The Social Network
Witty, edgy, self-referential, and often annoying, Sorkin's screenplay is a clear and well-deserved win for this category.
Best Art Direction
Inception
This first category of the evening (and my favorite, I might add!) is up in the air. Inception deserves to win, but King's Speech might pull through just because (please, no). It's also worth noting that no Tim Burton film nominated for Art Direction has lost yet.
Best Cinematography
True Grit
Roger Deakins has been nominated nine times and hasn't one once - and I pegged True Grit as the worthy winner of this category before I knew those statistics. I'm not one for westerns, but thanks to its cinematography True Grit is one of the best films I've ever seen.
Best Sound Editing/Mixing
Inception
Two separate categories but same picks and notes for both, so I'm combining them here. It is rare for the Academy to choose the same film for both Mixing and Editing, but I think it could (and should) happen this year. If it loses one of the awards, it would be to True Grit.
Best Original Song
"We Belong Together" (Toy Story 3) - Randy Newman
Toy Story 3 might win just to give that film another award, but I find it weird for a song used in the credits of the film to win when part of the judging is on the song's incorporation into the film. I haven't seen Tangled yet, but "If I Rise" is a great song and fits into the film beautifully.
Best Original Score
The Social Network - Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
People are saying that a more "traditional" score is more likely to be chosen here (see Costumes as well), but the Social Network's soundtrack is ingenious and so well-suited to its film. Bring on the techno.
Best Costumes
Alice in Wonderland
Again with the "traditional" bias, but I have to stick up for Alice here: Tim Burton films always lose out in the costuming award, but this is where that statistic should be changed. Colleen Atwood's morphing dress that became uniquely fabulous each time Alice grew or shrank was the highlight of the film for me, and some of the most creative costuming I've seen.
Best Film Editing
The Social Network
The Social Network relies on its awesome screenplay and its awesome editing. Its flashbacks and quick changes keep the film fresh, engaging, and modern.
Best Visual Effects
Inception
I love the Harry Potter films. And they have yet to win an Oscar. But that's because…they haven't deserved to. At least not yet. In the meantime, nothing but Inception deserves the award this year.
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For the following categories I haven't seen enough of the films nominated to judge myself, but will predict anyway based on what I've read about them/previous awards results this season:
Best Foreign Language Film
Incendies - Canada
Best Documentary Feature
Inside Job
Best Documentary Short
Strangers No More
Best Animated Short Film
Day & Night
Best Live Action Short Film
Wish 143
Best Make-up
The Wolfman
So what do you think? Post your predictions in the comments!
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